Entrepreneurs may invest more but QI data disappoint

APA - Austria Presse Agentur
18-07-2005, 10:13

Warsaw (Puls Biznesu) – In a poll conducted by “Puls Biznesu”, businessmen said that they were not concerned with the fall elections. They said, politics had no influence on their investment decisions. According to the data by central statistical office GUS, however, in the first quarter of 2005, investments grew by 1 percent only while forecasts talked about 10 percent rate.

Warsaw (Puls Biznesu) – In a poll conducted by “Puls Biznesu”, businessmen said that they were not concerned with the fall elections. They said, politics had no influence on their investment decisions. According to the data by central statistical office GUS, however, in the first quarter of 2005, investments grew by 1 percent only while forecasts talked about 10 percent rate. “Now the situation has improved a little bit but not much more”, Marcin Mroz, chief economist in Societe Generale said. He expected investment raise but not 10 percent as planned before – rather 5-7 percent. “Breakthrough is possible when projects financed by EU are realised. The second half of the year may be better”, Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska, Bank Handlowy economist believed.

Maciej Reluga, chief economist in BZ WBK enumerated reasons allowing investment growth. “Companies have good financial results, which means they have funds and use their capacities to a large extent. Consumption demand is going to grow in Poland because of falling inflation and better situation in the labour market. Exports are still high, which means foreign demand for Polish goods remain high, interest rates are falling and the companies expect EU funds”, the economist said. He admitted, however, that although similar conditions were noted before, investments were falling. “I cannot solve this riddle. I’m aware that the 7-percent investment dynamics, which I expect this year, may be revised down”, Maciej Reluga added.

In 1997, the GDP in Poland amounted to nearly 7 percent, demand was growing at 10-percent rate and investments growth was some dozen percentage point – a level never reached since that time. In 2001, the economy slowed down – GDP amounted to 1 percent, home demand fell by 1.6 percent, and investments growth rate decreased by some dozen percentage points. In 2004, the economy grew by 6.4 percent and investments were growing. The slow pace noted in the first quarter of this year, was a surprise.Poland/Economy/Investment

 

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