If only Zloty could get weaker…

opublikowano: 29-01-2008, 18:15

Warsaw (Puls Biznesu) –  According to  entrepreneurs surveyed by NBP the economic situation has been, and will remain, very good


Polish entrepreneurs – despite the fear of the recession in the US and its results on the European economy – are optimistic. The latest NBP (National Bank of Poland) report shows that companies are satisfied with the present situation as well as with the forecasts for the first quarter of 2008.

“I did not expect such optimism, its growth is visible in most of the fields. The report indicates the improvement of the demand forecasts, orders and production”, Maja Goettig, an economist from Bank BPH, says.


Higher salaries

The companies promise to pay more and more; 48.7 per cent of responding companies plans pay rises in the first quarter of 2008 and 78 per cent during the whole year.

According to Mateusz Szczurek from ING it complies with the employees’ expectations: the survey shows that more than a half counts on it, and 26.3 per cent anticipates a minimum 10 per cent rise within the year.

The employers declare also to hire more people. However, their main problem at the moment is Zloty and its changing position and exchange rate.

“It’s a result of strengthening Zloty’s position in the 4th quarter of 2007, it gained quickly in respect to the US Dollar and Euro. Such sudden changes are most difficult for the exporters”, Jacek Wisniewski, the key economist of Raiffeisen Bank, thinks.


It does not pay off any longer

As M. Szczurek notices, the problem of strong Zloty refers mainly to those trading with the customers from behind the eastern border who pay with dollars. Some traders complain about this situation but the economist believes that  it’s not likely to change in the nearest future.

The strong position of the Polish currency will remain the tendency. Also the expected increase of the NBP interest rates and the anticipated decrease of the US credits support this thesis.

Maja Goettig thinks that the situation will depend not only on the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council and Fed but also the stock exchanges worldwide. If nothing happens she expects the GNP to go up by about 5 per cent.

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Podpis: KSZ