Economists had expected the financial crisis to cause a breakdown in investments. The breakdown had come even before the crisis started.
Bad news for economy. According to the recent data from the central statistical office GUS, the GDP growth in the third quarter amounted to 4.8 percent year-on-year. This is quite good but some detailed data are very worrying. In the second quarter, investments grew 15 percent. In the third quarter, the dynamics dropped to 3.5 percent.
“This is not a decrease, this is a breakdown. We have expected a slowdown in investments because companies had been investing lots of funds and it had to stop some day. But you couldn’t have expected such a dramatic dive. This process happened much earlier than expected”, Grzegorz Maliszewski, Bank Millennium economist said.
In previous quarters, investments were the engine for the GDP growth.
“That’s why the lowest GDP dynamics may be noted not in the middle of next year, as expected so far, but at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009”, Aleksandra Swiatkowska from PKO BP believed.
Good news is strong consumption which in the third quarter amounted to 5.1 percent, the same level as in previous quarters. Exports were a nice surprise. It turned out that exports grew faster than imports, a totally different trend than recently.
“However it was partly because imports stopped. Companies invested less and
imported less machines and materials”, Maciej Reluga, BZ WBK chief economist