Stock exchange and Zloty are going to be stable

Grzegorz Nawacki
16-04-2010, 10:50

The markets are going to go through moments of uncertainty, but there is no need to panic. Investors know that the country is stable.

How will Saturday’s tragedy affect financial markets?

– I have no idea. Nothing like this has ever happened before. The share market might drop a little, although in Russia on the day of the terrorist attacks it rose – says Zbigniew Jakubowski, vice-president of Union Investment TFI.

Despite the uncertainty there is a conviction that the nearest stock exchange sessions will be calm.

– Our markets will behave just as the international markets. It is rather an event of political importance – says Sebastian Buczek, the chairmen of Quercus TFI.

– It is a sad tragic event, but it has no direct influence on the financial market. It does not affect the functioning of corporations – adds Grzegorz Letocha, the director of the BPH TFI assets management department.

Polish managers approach the catastrophe very calmly. The question is how foreign institutions will react.

– For foreign investors who know less about Poland perturbations on the political scene, and lack of leadership continuity are a reason to reflect on, but I think they will quickly get used to the situation – says Grzegorz Lechota.

– Invertors who know Poland know it is a stable country, and the economy is much less connected to politics than in Russia or Ukraine. They know that the little in economy depends on who the president is. There should be no negative reaction on their side. The investors who do not know Poland that well, can pun investing on hold, or withdraw, to see what will happen. There might be a day or two of waiting, but I do not expect any serious spins – says Piotr Sieradzan, the investing director of Pocztylion-Arka PTE.

– There is no reason for foreign investors to change their attitude towards our bonds. From the economic point of view nothing has happened which could mean a risk increase – says Zbigniew Jakubowski, vice-president of Union Investment TFI.

It is confirmed by the first reports of foreign institutions.

– We can see no negative implications for the markets. Polish constitution frames are reliable and they clearly define the steps that should be taken in such a situation. The economic system is going to function properly, with the Central Bank having a precisely defined role –claims Simon Quijano-Evans, chief of EMEA region in Credit Agricole Cheuvreux.

More nervousness is expected on the foreign exchange market.

– The first hours after the market opening will be tense, but stabilization should return around midday. Crucial elements of monetary policy have not changed. Investors got scared away as early as on Friday, after the intervention of the NBP. The threshold of 3,95zl to euro should not be disturbed – says Marek Rogalski, DM BOŚ analyst.

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