Since February 2006, retail sales dynamics have been double-digit one. In August, they grew to 17.4 percent, or the level slightly above expectations.
“Consumption is still one of the main engines of economic growth. Yesterday retail sales data published by GUS make us expect 6 percent GDP growth in the third quarter. Economy will slow down slightly but the growth will remain very strong”, Piotr Kalisz, Citibank Handlowy economist said.
Labor market data keep improving. Job demand keeps growing while unemployment rate keeps falling, Jozef Olenski, GUS CEO said. Unemployment fell to 12 percent in August, or to 1.82m people. Joanna Kluzik-Rostkowska, minister of labor, believes that unemployment rate will fall to 11.7 percent in September and 11.5 percent in December. Meanwhile, employment and wages are growing fast.
“Some economists worry about wage increases. But it does not cause bigger demand which in turn would cause inflationary pressure”, Jozef Olenski believed.
Economists, however, forecast interest rate increases.
“There is a discrepancy between low inflation and
the situation on the labor market. Wage increase does not automatically mean
higher prices. If, however, slowdown in efficiency continues, it will cause
price increase. It won’t happen in upcoming months but within two years it is
possible. And this is exactly the horizon the Monetary Policy Council takes into
account”, Citibank Handlowy economist said.