The economic growth is getting faster and faster, investments are booming, inflation is under control. The Monetary Policy Council has no reasons to change interest rates.
The GDP growth is the fastest since Poland joined the European Union. In the second quarter of this year, it amounted to 5.5 percent, up from 5.2 percent in the first quarter. This result surprised the majority of analysts although they have revised their forecasts up in the recent weeks. The investments value surprised the analysts even more. The growth amounted to 14.4 percent and generated 40 percent of the GDP growth. However, the main driver was growing consumption (4.9 percent, while economists expected 5.2 percent). Exports are also helping the economy. In the second quarter exports grew by 13 percent or by 1.3 percentage point faster than imports.
Economists believe that the data is very good for the economy.
“There are comments that inflationary pressure may be bigger. I would worry if it was only the consumption which drives the GDP growth and not investments. It is the other way round, however”, Piotr Kalisz, Bank Handlowy economist said.
Marcin Bilbin, Pekao analyst agrees.
“The inflation is under control In July, it amounted to 1.1 percent, economists expect it will grow to 1.6-1.7 percent at the end of the year”, Marcin Bilbin added.
The Monetary Policy Council’s members must think the same. Yesterday, they did not change the interest rates. Leszek Balcerowicz, MPC chairman said that in light of the newest macro data, the inflation should grow according to last month’s projections (1.0-1.9 this year, 1.5-3.5 percent in the last quarter of 2007).