Despite several months talking, Rotch Energy has failed to convince Nafta Polska that it is a suitable partner to take 75 percent of the Gdansk refinery from the state. The problem is the cash to buy the shares and to invest in the refinery and its retail network.
Since the visit of President Putin of Russia to Poland and the general improvement in relations between the two countries, the refinery seems to be being pulled into the orbit of Russian proposals.
On Friday Nafta Polska will be meeting with Russian businesses as well as Rotch Energy. It would seem that the new friends from the east could enter into a deal where they would become minority shareholders in the refinery alongside the British. It is rumoured that the Russians however could take a larger stake in future years.
At the time of writing on Tuesday evening it is not clear which Russian companies will be present at the meeting. The most logical is that representatives of Jukos which recently expressed an interest in buying a stake in the Gdansk refinery will be present. Jukos could supply the refinery with all its crude oil needs.
Treasury minister Wiesław Kaczmarek says that the Russians do not figure in current privatisation plans although they could be in the future.
Lukoil, which also has its eyes on Polish refineries, could also be present. The company claims that it wants to open at least 200 petrol stations in this country. Some of these could be bought from the Gdańsk refinery. The company also wants to supply crude oil to Polish refineries as well as invest in the heavy chemical industry.
It could be that given the widening of talks on the subject of the refinery privatisation, the Hungarian MOL could be invited to return to the table. The Hungarian company lost out in the privatisation race to Rotch which gained exlusivity in negotiations in the sell off.
Another possibility is the return to the old idea of linking the refinery to PKN Orlen and then seeking an investor for the newly united firm. Again, this is something that could interest the Russians. This rumour recently pushed up the value of Orlen shares.
It could be that a link up of the Gdańsk refinery with PKN could lead to the former becoming the poor partner in the relationship. However given the globalisation of the fuels sector with multinational corporations dominating the scene, it is hard to see a role for a medium sized refinery like that of Gdańsk.