US analysts talk about recession without recession phenomenon

opublikowano: 2008-08-05 17:32

Exclusively for Puls Biznesu, renowned analysts forecast gloomy future of US economy. Peter Kretzmer, the economist of Bank of America says: “This is the first recession in US history where the GDP is not falling. The worst is still in front of us, however.” Sheryl King, Merrill Lynch economist believes: “US economy has been losing jobs for six months. It has never experienced anything like this in the past”. Steven Hess, Moody’s economist adds: “Fed may leave interest rates low. They will be raised in 2009. "

This is the first time in the history of the USA that recession is going on despite the fact that the GDP keeps growing. The GDP growth amounted to 0.1 percent in June. Meanwhile, unemployment and inflation increase while demand falls down.

“The worst is still in front of us. The US economy will rebound when the situation on the home market stops deteriorating, which must last for some time”, Peter Kretzmer said.

“There are voices that US economy is not that important for Poland but its influence is very big in fact”, Marcin Mroz, Fortis Bank chief economist warned.

First of all, bad situation in the USA means smaller demand for European, and Polish, goods. Besides, bad moods in the Wall Street, adversely affect the trading on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

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