May inflation was a surprise to analysts. They expected a 0.2 percentage point decrease but it stayed unchanged against April and amounted to 2.3 percent year-on-year, the central statistical office GUS said.
“Food price increase was 0.3 percentage point higher than I expected while housing prices grew instead of stabilizing”, Ryszard Petru, Bank BPH chief economist commented.
Food prices jumped 1.3 percent last month with fruit prices growing at the fastest rate (12.5 percent) and vegetable prices growing 3.8 percent. Housing costs increased 0.9 percent. Fuel prices added 1.6 percent instead of expected 2 percent, however. Piotr Kalisz, Citibank Hanldowy economist believes that in June, inflation may grow close to the target set by the National Bank of Poland (2.5 percent).
“It will depend strongly on food prices”, Piotr Kalisz said.
Ryszard Petyru expects 2.7-2.8 percent.
“If so, the Monetary Policy Council will be more eager to raise interest rates and the July increase will be almost certain”, Bank BPH economist said.