The solemnity of the funeral will attenuate the omnipresent anticipation of Poles for the establishment of exact causes of the catastrophe in Smolensk just for a while. In this context a conflict between interests and expectations of the media and the progress the investigating bodies are making is quite natural. The history of similar tragedies proves that the accident investigation commission’s statement is published after several months. Therefore, it is not surprising that the media detect the smallest pieces of information and on their basis build hypotheses, which are on the other hand contradicted by prosecutors.
In Poland we have different experiences in displaying the causes of air tragedies. Both catastrophes of the LOT Ił-62M planes nearby Okecie in Warsaw, “Mikolaj Kopernik” in 1980 and “Tadeusz Kosciuszko” in 1987, were thoroughly investigated. In both cases faulty Russian equipment was to be blamed; it was established which exactly part of the turbine fell off, in which microsecond, what it damaged, etc. The case with the quite recent accident of Casa plane in Miroslawiec, in which twenty air force officers died two years ago, is different. The commission released very detailed information about the last phase of the flight; computer simulations we carried out till the moment in which the machine “suddenly turned and went down”. The society has never learned officially and directly – why.
The catastrophe in Smolensk has been the most tragic in social terms, and
second most tragic when it comes to numbers – after the crash of “Kosciuszko” in
Las Kabacki – in the history of Poland. The worst which could happen would be if
the Casa syndrome kicked on, and the report of the commission would state that
the direct cause of Tupolev 154M tragedy was the fact it hit the ground.