Warsaw (Puls Biznesu) – The CPI did not jump thanks to moderate increase in food prices. Economists are sure that there will be no changes in the interest rates for several months.
Inflation remained on the same level as in August and amounted to 1.6 percent in September. The consumption prices rose 0.2 percent month-on-month, the central statistical office GUS said. The market expected 1.7 percent increase. Marcin Mroz, Fortis Bank chief economist, explains lower CPI with small increase in food prices which grew 0.7 percent since August.
“It turned out that summer drought-flood perturbations did not influence food prices so inflation remained unchanged. If you exclude food and fuel prices, there is no inflation increase either, which would suggest a demand pressure. The situation has been the same for months. Nothing suggest that interest rates should be changed immediately”, Marcin Mroz said.
“Inflation in November and December will jump to about 2 percent but mainly due to low basis of food prices a year ago. If this is the only reason, the reaction of the Monetary Policy Council will not be necessary”, Maciej Reluga, BZ WBK chief economist added.
He stressed, however, that if the labor market data are strong in upcoming months, interest rates may be raised by 20-50 base points.