Warsaw (Puls Biznesu) - Interest rates, with the referential one, remained unchanged after this week's meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP). The council did not changed its attitude, which is mild. Meanwhile, according to data released by Poland's central statistical office GUS, retail sales in April fell by 14.4 percent in comparison to last year, while PPI dropped 1 percent. Since the beginning of 2004, GDP growth have been decreasing. According to estimates by central bank, in the first quarter, GDP amounted to 3 percent, while a year ago it was 7 percent. Unemployment is falling - in April it shed to 18.8 percent - for the first time this year, the number of unemployed people was lower than 3 m.
'The retail sales and unemployment data were no surprise and did not influence MPC's decision', Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska, Bank Handlowy chief economist said. According to Jacek Wisniewski, the head of analyses and market forecast in Pekaod, it is difficult to analyse this year's data because of high base achieved in 2004. The more, that this year's sales data were lower due to mourning after the death of John Paul II. 'Last year, before EU accession, shopping were extremely big. Retail sales in April 2004 rose 30 percent. This is the reason for this year's weak data. Since May, we will not positive values again', Pekao analyst forecast.
In his opinion, after 3.1 percent growth in the first quarter, GDP will exceed 4 percent in the second quarter and 5 percent in the third. 'Butinterest rates will not change this year', Jacek Wisniewski said.