March wage data presented by GUS central statistical office surprised analysts. Wages rose 6.1 percent since February and 9.1 percent year on year. The market expected 3 percentage points less. Employment grew 4.5 percent and was also better than expected. In the first quarter of this year, wages grew nearly 8 percent while employment over 4 percent. Piotr Bujak, Bank Zachodni WBK economist believes that the situation is a surprise to the Monetary Policy Council.
“It will surely make them more cautious and will rather encourage for rate increases in April. Especially, that MPC members stressed many times that the relations between wage increase and profitability are of key meaning for them”, BZ WBK economist believed.
Bartosz Pawlowski, ING economist, believes that fast growing wages are a constant element of Polish economy.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if in April wages grew about 8 percent”, he said.
He adds, however, that as long as inflations is low, there are no reasons to worry.
Piotr Bujak calms down that the monetary policy will not be tightened drastically.
“There may be three raises, 25 points each”, Piotr Bujak said.