None of the analysts polled by “Puls Biznesu” believes that the Monetary Policy Council will change interest rates at its meeting tomorrow. They do not agree, however, about the future events. Lukasz Tarnawa, PKO BP analyst, believes that there will be no change this year.
“But there is such a risk if inflation jumps in February and March while economy stays very strong. The biggest risk and the most difficult moment for MPC is February”, PKO BP economist said.
Marcin Mrowiec from Bank BPH believes that as long as inflation is low, and productivity grows quicker than wages, the decision to raise the rates will be postponed. Mateusz Szczurek from ING sees no threats in the nearest future.
“I don’t expect increases this year although you cannot totally exclude them”, he said.
Agnieszka Decewicz from Pekao expects interest
rates will grow by 75 base points. Piotr Kalisz from Citibank Handlowy believes
they will happen in the first half of the year. Grzegorz Maliszewski from Bank
Millennium expects them at the end of the year. In his opinion, rates will grow
further in 2008 (by 75 points). The main rate would then amount to 5 percent.