Witold Orłowski, who replaced Marka Belka as the head of the presidential economic advisory team, believes that interest rates should take a cut of at least four percent this year.
A lesser cut might not be sufficient to get the economy moving again, although Orłowski insists that the only body qualified to decide on when the cut will take place is the monetary policy council (Rada Polityki Pieniężnej) of the central bank. He says that this body needs to be independent of political interference in every country but that does not mean that it is above criticism itself.
Whereas almost every commentator thinks that interest rates have to come down fast, Orłowski notes that it is the responsibility of the central bank to be cautious.
The presidential advisor also believes that inflation may increase a little this year, however the annual target should be met. He believes that inflation will be 4.5 to five percent this year. PLN, he expects will fall by some ten to 15 percent this year.
He admits that the government will have its hands full trying to fight joblessness. The December figure of 17.4 percent is only another step towards a much higher figure, passing twenty percent this year. There will be few signs of growth in the first half of the year, indeed it could well be negative. In the second half it is likely to pick up a little although it is unlikely to exceed one percent for the entire year. Witold Orłowski is positive about the economic programme of finance minister Marek Belka. He agrees that growth could be three or even five percent in furture years and even seven percent is seen as being possible. However that is in the long term.