Exporters have more and more reasons to worry. Yesterday, the zloty appreciated to PLN 3.3494 for euro, the least since June 2001. Dollar cost PLN 2.1198, or the least since December 1993. A year ago, exporters polled by the National Bank of Poland said that their operations would no longer be profitable if euro falls below PLN 3.7 and dollar below PLN 2.9.
“The currency gets stronger and stronger because investors believe it’s stable. In addition, hopes for interest rate increase have risen in the recent days. They may grow from 6 percent to even 6.5 percent”, Marcin Kiepas, X-Trade Brokers analyst said.
It will get even tougher to export goods.
“The zloty will appreciate in the future as well. It may fall when the dollar rises substantially. But the data from the USA show this scenario is not probable”, Marcin Kiepas added.
In his opinion, the dollar may fall to even PLN 2.1 this week. Strong zloty is only part of bad news. The economic growth in abroad will slow down to just over 1 percent in the beginning of 2009, the national bank economists forecast. In February, they expected that the lowest dynamics would be noted six months earlier and would amount to 1.6 percent.
“The euro zone and the USA still face the worst. The demand for ‘made in
Poland’ goods will get weaker, and exports will slow down substantially.
Double-digit growth dynamics will be over”, Piotr Bujak, BZ WBK economist
expected.